Mexico has recently seen a slowdown in growth, impacted by a sharp decline in external demand. Showing a 1.7% CAGR over the past four years (among the lowest in the region) and a 2013 forecast of 3.1%, the country has nonetheless managed to maintain some stability in its growth rate – ranging between 3.5% and 3.9% - since its recovery in 2010, This is a result of the increasing domestic demand that continues to stimulate the country’s economic growth, especially in investment, as well as having a strong correlation with the performance of the Mexican economy.
The new government faces the challenge of further stimulating this growth; prioritizing structural, fiscal, governmental and energy reforms; and exploring the possibility of spending cuts to make up for the reduction of tax revenues. There are signs that the weak external demand is starting to affect domestic demand as well, where growth is still insufficient to create more jobs (with a slight drop in unemployment rates since 2009), to sustainably increase wages and to improve the country’s welfare. The rate of foreign investment in the country has been falling since 2008, with 2012 being the lowest rate in 12 years. However, a return to growth in the second half is predicted, propelled by an apparent improvement in the economy of its main trading partner, the United States.
Even with positive macroeconomic tendencies and a growing consumer market, a large part of the population continues to live below the poverty line. Having a political history marked with violent confrontations, the government is working to join forces and raise the country’s competitiveness. With its large population, good geographical location and numerous international agreements, the country is seen as an interesting consumer market by several global brands. In this context, Mexican brands have been struggling to make the most of this growing market, with the biggest brands concentrated in the hands of very few companies.